Tariffs have almost doubled since 2024

Global trade is undergoing ongoing upheaval, driven by geopolitics, protectionism and the effects of climate change, according to the latest study by credit insurer Allianz Trade. Trade between economies with similar geopolitical orientations is gaining in importance in the context of the trade war, the study's authors conclude.

Last year alone, the volume of trade affected by trade restrictions almost tripled, affecting goods worth an estimated USD 2.7 tn, the study finds – equivalent to around 20 per cent of global imports. The main drivers are newly introduced import tariffs: By mid-October, 309 new tariffs had been introduced, almost twice as many as in the whole of 2024.

Over the past two decades, global trade flows have therefore shifted more towards friendly or geographically close countries (‘friendshoring’ and regionalisation), according to the study. Trade within the region has increased particularly strongly in relation to the global economy in Asian developing countries (+302 per cent), but also in North America (+38 per cent), sub-Saharan Africa (+88 per cent) and Latin America (+16 per cent). Trade within Asia has grown particularly strongly, by +337 per cent. However, trade between Asian countries (mainly China) and other regions has also increased: exports to Latin America rose by 412 per cent and those to sub-Saharan Africa by 161 per cent.