Europe 2040

I’m going to say something that nobody wants to hear right now: It’s a good thing that the economy is faltering. It’s a good thing that alliances are becoming unstable. It’s even okay that brands and prices are being put to the test.

I don’t mean this cynically or disrespectfully, but rather as an observation that everything that’s happening right now will help us successfully navigate the coming era. And because it’s high time, things are creaking all around us.

Strictly speaking, there are no “omni-” or “multi-crises” in the economy—that term implies a complete lack of direction. There is one major challenge, and several tools to solve it. However, since we aren’t using the tools properly, they’re becoming a side project. The task is urgent: to generate enough output and productivity with fewer resources (people and materials) to maintain security, prosperity, and well-being in Germany and Europe in 2040. With this precision, we in Europe are at the forefront.

This is perhaps the first narrative that needs to be clarified: We are not lagging behind, but rather far ahead. Europe and Germany serve as the test market for major innovations that will eventually reach everyone else. We are the most mature nation in Europe in 2040, with the highest average age of 47 (compared to Africa’s 22), the largest proportion of people in the middle class and with high levels of education, and we have a largely open, socially oriented society. We’re currently dealing with different issues than most—and fields of innovation that other countries will face 10 to 20 years from now and will need solutions for.

The climate crisis is a clear signal that we need to view the circular economy as a source of prosperity. Anyone who experienced the sell-out of air conditioners this summer knows that when things get dicey (or “hot”) and you haven’t taken precautions, it gets expensive—and this principle applies just as much to entrepreneurs. A shift has long been underway in society. Conserving resources doesn’t simply mean offering recycled products or reusable packaging. It means understanding availability and material flows in order to use that knowledge to build products and, above all, infrastructure and partnerships. In Europe, the construction sector alone accounts for about half of the raw materials extracted. The new economy begins with a sober assessment of the current situation. What materials are available in Europe, including those in existing buildings and products—often…